عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
This research aimed to simulate and analyze deformation patterns and stress concentration along the Banaravan Fault, an active NW-SE trending fault over 20 km long in the Bozqush Mountains of northwest Iran. A combined approach including field studies, stress regime analysis, physical analog modeling, and finite element numerical modeling was employed. Seismicity data (historical and instrumental up to 2017) from ISC, NEIC, and the University of Tehran’s Geophysics Institute, along with GPS data from five stations (up to 2013), were used for model validation.
Geodynamic analyses confirmed a compressional stress regime with a significant strike-slip component. Numerical modeling using ANSYS software (2D domain, PLANE182 elements, 200 m mesh) revealed that stress and strain concentration along the fault is non-uniform, with maximum values occurring at fault tips and bends—identified as critical foci for potential future significant earthquakes. In contrast, maximum displacement occurs at the central portion of the fault plane. Increasing fault zone thickness (30–250 m) and variations in host rock properties (Young’s modulus 30–40 GPa, Poisson’s ratio 0.2–0.3) considerably influence stress distribution and deformation patterns.
Model validity was confirmed through acceptable agreement between model outputs and independent seismicity maps and geodetic data. The study indicates that villages near the fault termination zones, particularly in the eastern part of the region, face the highest seismic hazard levels. These findings provide a scientific basis for settlement risk management and the design of earthquake-resistant structures.
کلیدواژهها English
