بررسی توزیع زمانی و مکانی خشکسالی در ایران بر اساس شاخص بارش استاندارد شده

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی‌سینا، همدان، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بوعلی‌سینا، همدان، ایران

3 استادیار گروه علوم خاک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ملایر، ملایر، ایران

چکیده

خشکسالی از آثار تغییر اقلیم و خصوصا کاهش بارندگی­ها نسبت به حد میانگین درازمدت است. به‌دلیل تغییرپذیری مکانی و زمانی خشکسالی در اقلیم­های مختلف آب و هوایی ایران، تعیین جهت این تغییرات می­تواند در مدیریت آب و تخصیص آن به جنبه­های مختلف کاربری، نقش مهمی داشته باشد. در این مطالعه، به­منظور بررسی توزیع زمانی خشکسالی، از روش ناپارامتری من­کندال در 28 ایستگاه سینوپتیک کشور طی سال‌های 1981 تا 2010 استفاده شد. روندیابی خشکسالی با شاخص بارش استاندارد شده (SPI) گویای تفاوت رفتاری شاخص خشکسالی در اقلیم­های مختلف کشور می­باشد. با بررسی شاخص بارش استاندارد شده (SPI) مشخص گردید که اکثر اقلیم­های مورد بررسی دوره خشکسالی سالانه را تجربه کرده­اند. از نظر وقوع خشکسالی، بیش­ترین خشکسالی سالانه در اقلیم خشک با زمستان خنک تابستان گرم شامل ایستگاه­های: تهران، سمنان، کرمان، بیرجند، زاهدان و اصفهان، مشاهده گردید. به‌طوری که در این اقلیم، درصد وقوع سال‌های خشک به‌طور میانگین 55/20 درصد به­دست آمد. نتایج آزمون من­کندال شاخص بارش استاندارد شده (SPI) نیز بیان­گر روند افزایش معنی‌دار خشکسالی در بررسی سالانه و سه فصل بهار، پاییز، زمستان است. شدیدترین روند افزایش خشکسالی در ایستگاه سنندج مشاهده گردید. بررسی توزیع مکانی خشکسالی نشان داد در مقیاس سالانه، شدیدترین خشکسالی در بخش جنوب­شرقی کشور می­باشد. در مقیاس فصلی، توزیع مکانی خشکسالی ناهمگون است. لیکن در فصل زمستان توزیع مکانی خشکسالی بیان‌گر استقرار خشکسالی نرمال در سطح کشور است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the temporal and spatial distribution of drought in Iran based on the standardized precipitation index

نویسندگان [English]

  • R. Fasihi 1
  • A. Taheri Tizro 2
  • M. Bayatvarkeshi 3
1 Ph. D. student of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
2 Assoc. Prof., Dept., of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
3 Assist. Prof., Dept., of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran
چکیده [English]

Drought is result of climate change and specific principle decrease relation to longterm mean margin.for local & time drought variation in disparate weather climate in Iran, nomination vector this variation can in water management and that designation to control variation aspects, these have mater role. In this study the drought variation trend using non-parametric Mann-Kendall in 28 synoptic stations from 1981 to 2010 were studied. Also local dispense survey with earth statistics in ArcGIS9.3 software accomplish. The results of trending drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) represent the different behavior of drought index in different climates. The results of SPI showed that the majority of climates surveyed have experienced annual drought period. The occurrence of droughts, dry climate with cool winter and hot sammer of the highest annual drought was observed. As this climate drought years mean occurrence percent 20.55 percent was observed. Mann-Kendall test results Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) also Represents that in the 3 seasons, spring, fall, winter and annual scale significant trend increase. The most trend drought significant increase was observed in Sanandaj. Surveyed local dispense observed in annual scale The most drought in south-east of country was increase was observed. In seasons scale, drought local dispense was heterogeneous. But in winter season drought local dispense explanatory was normal drought pitch in country.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • SPI Index
  • Iran
  • Mann-Kendall
  • ArcGIS
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